Republican Governor’s Race Betting Guide – August 2022

If you attended the Fancy Farm picnic and political speaking chances are you have already seen this guide as it appeared in a special print edition of Kentucky Fried Politics. Each month as the race for the GOP nomination draws closer Kentucky Fried Politics will be updating our odds for the GOP gubernatorial field.

Here is where we think the race stands right now.

Ryan Quarles – Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner

Why He Can Win: He has sown Kentucky connections since his first statewide election in 2015. Quarles has shown his speed at gathering cash and Kentucky endorsements in the primary race. He has the ability to run this race as both the frontrunner and the underdog.
Why He Can’t Win: Quarles could be capped on what he can raise in Kentucky alone after hitting $1M. If a self fund- ing candidate gets in the race he could struggle to be heard.
August 2022 Odds: 5-1.

Daniel Cameron – Kentucky Attorney General

Why He Can Win: He is deeply connected to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell. If Kentucky’s senior Senator marshalls his troops for Cameron it could shift the race. Donald Trump is endorsing Cameron.

Why He Can’t Win: He believes his own hype. He’s trailing in fundraising and multiple sources say Republican insiders are frustrated with his run, and wish he had kept his promises to seek a second term as AG.
August 2022 Odds: 20-1.

Mike Harmon – Kentucky Auditor

Why He Can Win: Harmon is a sleeper in the race. He’s keeping his head down and positioning himself to end up on a ticket as Lt. Governor with someone who could win.

Why He Can’t Win: Harmon won’t have the money, the endorsements or the connections. But he will bring the jokes.
August 2022 Odds: 30-1.

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Savannah Maddox – 61st Dist. State Representative

Why She Can Win: If she can control the “liberty” vote she could potentially end up with enough of a margin to win the primary.
Why She Can’t Win: Much of her support is regional as she is not well known across the state. Without adequate funding she’ll struggle to reach the primary voters.
August 2022 Odds: 30-1.

Kelly Craft – Former United Nations Ambassador (NOT YET A DECLARED CANDIDATE)

Why She Can Win: Craft will have millions of dollars to dump into the Kentucky race, and some of the best campaign staff that money can buy. She will be able to blanket the airwaves and shift to frontrunner status on her first day in the race.
Why She Can’t Win: She will have to connect to voters in person. Her titles & accolades to this point have been purchased. Her campaign strategists likely won’t know Kentucky.
August 2022 Odds: 10-1.

Alan Keck – Mayor of Somerset (NOT A DECLARED CANDIDATE)

Why He Can Win:
If he can control the vote from the 5th Congressional District he could steal the race.
Why He Can’t Win: He is virtually unknown, and will be entering the race late as he needs to secure re-election as mayor.
August 2022 Odds: 50-1

Matt Bevin – Former Governor of Kentucky (NOT A DECLARED CANDIDATE)

Why He Can Win: Bevin shifts the race if he enters. He has personal wealth, a base of Evangelical support that other candidates will struggle to reach.With enough candidates in the race Bevin’s base could win the primary.
Why He Can’t Win: He left office incredibly unpopular. Bevin defies norms – his name id and his negatives remain high.
August 2022 Odds: 10-1.